Chase day next week??!?!

I mentioned it in the last blog, but things may be coming together for a pretty significant episode next week...

Depending on where it sets up, I may be heading out there, right now it looks like the middle MS valley could be under the gun, areas like the boot heal of MO into AR and TN...if perhaps we can get some of that moisture more north, central IL may see a threat as well. This is something Ill be keeping a close eye on....GFS wants to eject a 985mb low with some of the paramaters coming together...dont have much time to write so ill add more later!! Keeping a very close eye on this though...

me likey...



By adumbftw

Reverse psychology?

Ok so yesterday I mentioned I would throw in the towel on the chase season...but low and behold I check todays GFS and sure enough look what I see 10 days out staring back at me in the face.



HMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmm *raises eyebrow*

What a nice little trough we have here...digging into the plains...yesterday this was merely a ripple in the isotachs resembling more of shortwave than anything...now today its a full out trough.

And yes...I know its 10 days out and I know all about model sketchiness and unrealibility that far out...one thing I cant stand about ST is when someone tries to start a discussion about what they see on models that far out...one of the 1st responses is always "bla bla bla thats too far out why are u getting ur hopes up" I KNOW ITS FAR OUT...AND IM WISHCASTING...but to me I always like to see how these things end up verifying...and watching the evolution of these potential systems over the models...its never to early to raise the eyebrow and making sure your prepared...ok anyways...

Even on the surface chart, there is FINALLY hints at some moisture coming back, almost as far north as the quincy area, with some backed surface winds from NWern MO back into Ern AR


Although taking a look at the precip plot, it looks like the bulk of the precip will be on the northern fringe of the ssytem, suggesting maybe a snow event for the northern areas...and less isolated precip in the 'warm sector'...

i dont know if i buy into this yet...going back to the 1000mb chart there looks like a warm front advancing across central MO and maybe into SWern IL...direction shear looks good between 1000 and 850 but then becomes more unidirectional between 850 and 500 it seems. Perhaps the speed shear, which looks modest, could still be enough to promote some turning. Ill wait before I check for any signs of a cap...instability and helicity and whatnot.

Its far out...and things will surely change...I dont look into things much more in depth than that at 10 days out...or i WILL drive myself nutty wishcasting myself into a coma...eh maybe ill take a peek and see what EURO has to say...its an eyebrow raiser thats for sure. If I had to pick a target now, id say central MO [yuck] through eastern AR.

Weeeee.

SNOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooW!

Ew. Yuck. Sick. BLECH!!!

No, I didn't attempt to eat my first ever salad....Im talking about the sighting of snow flurries around here today. I knew it officially snowed here yesterday, but I didnt see it...so I was able to at least fool myself into thinking the year wasn't over yet. Today reality pimp smacked me in the face and I am finally tossing in the towel on the chase season. Fall was a major let down as far as chaseable setups go...but its never a real garauntee. We just cant get out of this damn west coast ridge-east coast trough pattern...it may break for a day or 2 but nothing ever comes of it...large highs over the east are keeping the gulf cut off to even the southern states.

But...in my last entry I mentioned a meager threat for thunder with a cutoff low progged to move over the region...well to my suprise as Im shopping for camping supplies Friday...an anvil crawler streaks across the sky followed my favorite sound in the entire world...temps were chilly, but height falls were enough to support tstorm development after-all. Some daytime "heating" also helped get the process going. It was definitely welcome.

Driving back from my camping trip to Indiana [which included us getting lost in the dead of night in a canyon for an hour] I decided to drive by the sight on I-57 where I filmed the tornado. It would be the 1st time I have been there since that day...and much to my suprise, there is still allot of debris scattered around...just goes to show how lazy I-dot is. Only a few moments later I found myself in a barage of mushy, pea and smaller size hailstorm that covered the road in only about 20 seconds. I wasnt convinced it was hail at first but after going over things and checking reports and conditions...i believe it really was. A nice little bonus.

So now that the year has drawn to an almost certain close...whats planned in the off season? More of the same...continue teaching myself more and more. I dont overload myself with more information than I can handle, which has helped me learn more than I ever plan. I hope to get a real chase website up and running as well, but that will be a much bigger project. As far as "upgrades" go...it will depend on how finances treat me...a windshield camera mount is on the top of my list. Perhaps a real camera from which to take better quality still images with, and begin educating myself on that aspect of the game.

Some quick stats on the season:

Chases: 13
Tornadoes: 4 [3 in Kansas, 1 in Illinois]
Largest hail-core: Half dollar size - 1.50"
Miles: Approx 11,400
States covered: IL, IN IA, NE, KS, AR, MS, TN

Of course a more detailed account is coming...but that will be later.

Since its now the off season, there wont be much forecasting going on over here, but Im sure I will have plenty to rant and talk about over the winter. Next year I plan on being very aggressive. I feel allot of opportunities were blown because we were pussy footing around the storms rather than diving in and just going for it. I know all there is to know about intercepting the various types of storms, so next year I will be getting my hands dirtier. Im still developing my chase "career" so its one step at a time.

On a serious note, Id like to ask you to send your thoughts and blessings out to fellow storm chaser Andrew Pritchard...his GF just went through the horrible tragedy of losing her sister to sensless violence by a piece of shit sorry sad excuse for a man. The news is horrible and I wish him, her and the family the best during this hard time. The chasing community is with you guys and you have our unending support.

Time to throw in the towel?

It would almost seem like it is time. With October rounding the half way mark and not even a sign on the models of anything worth-while. Usually the 1st half of fall provides at least 1 chaseable setup. This year that does not seem to be the case. November also can provide such a setup, although it would favor the southeastern parts of the country.

Looking at things now there is definitely nothing worth getting excited over. Last week 10 days out a cutoff low was starting to take shape. It looks like this verified as the feature has shown up consistently all week on not only the GFS but the EURO as well. Even the shorter range NAM picks up on the feature. Before that the temperatures will begin a graduall decline.



There it is shown above, this feature looks to move slowly and begin affecting my region on Wednesday...bringing miserable, cool and rainy conditions. The only hope for even a rumble of thunder would be if the system tracks a little more to the north, but I dont see that happening.

What I really dont like is what i see 10 days out.



Yuck. Although the GFS has a tendency to overdue cold surges that far out. I hope in this case it is true. The dominant pattern since summer though seems to have been west coast ridging and east coast troughing, so this seems all the more probable.

The last saving grace for the year could be a teeter totter like switch near the end of the month and into the beginning of november...if that doesnt verify then the towel will be thrown in, at least Ive managed to rack up more time off for next year. Which some think will be even more active than this year. Lets hope.

Pre-SDS is kicking in.

AAAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

The first signs of SDS. I spend an hour trying to follow the chaser drama blog trail. Im glad im neutral in all of that. Then again Ive never been one to care what someone else thinks or says about me. Im going to do what I want to do regardless, for every person who has something bad to say, theres 5 who have something good to say. Its a shame such a small community of enthusiasts is divided by its core fundamentals.

It all comes down to difference in style really. Some get close and in-your-face shots. Others dont. Allot of criticism comes to those whove had near death situations....but in the end...its their own call to put themselves in harms way. Who am I to tell people who are trained what not to do. They know the risks. I tend to be riskier than the average chaser. Not so much for fame, but I wont turn down any offer that came my way. Its everyones dream as a child to be well known for doing what they love, and to be successfull in doing so. If that makes me a bad person for fulfilling my dream then so be it.

Each year my network amongst chasers continues to grow, all for the positive, Ive gotten along with everyone Ive met. Someday that will change....and thats ok with me. Negativitey creates balance. Its impossible to please everyone.

As far as the weather goes...glancing at the 10 day GFS is a cause for attacking a bottle of whiskey. I dont like to look farther out than that because I always end up wishcasting. The ever persistant west coast ridge looks like its coming back. Putting us in the cool trough region. The transition wont feature any storms here though. The main surface low responsible for the big snows in Montana has drifted way into Canada leaving only a weak trailing cold front. The good juice has been stuck down south, as is common this time of year, and there isnt enoug instibility go get anything going.

The "second season" is having a togh time taking off, and right now I see nothing in the near future worth getting excited over. SDS is slowly setting in. Its going to be a long winter unless the season has one last breath of life.