Recap of Nov 5th chase to Southern KS

Thats right, southern Kansas.

We abandoned our northern target to play the southern target. The problem I have is once Im out there, I tell myself "its only a little bit further" and I forget I have a long drive back to Chicago once its all said and done. About 2 hours into our changed plans, SPC updrades to MDT risk as we drive down there. High Fives all around and confidence is up high. But alas, no tornadoes. Another thing I know but like to deny...SPC are not the all knowing gods of severe weather. In the end our northern target saw storms as well, so the original forecast was still good. Though they were less concentrated than the south.


The sun slowly rises in Iowa and we find ourselves driving through crapvection.


We finally make it to Kansas and decide to play the waiting game around Fredonia. Iniation took place around OKC and storms quickly became severe and started racing off to the NE. They would eventually track through where we were but we were concerned they would be linear by then so the decision was made to go after them.

Starting to see them as we approach.


We got down to hwy 166 and headed west, just as the 1st storm of a bunch went tornado warned. We stopped along the highway and the CG activity really picked up, it was one of the most intense CG barages Ive experiences, 4 strikes within 100 yards of us..including one that was probably less than 30, jolted us within a minute. I wish I had the camera rolling.

Looking west towards the tornado warned storm, at a ragged wall cloud partially embedded in a precip core.




The storm started looking outflowish, and then the winds turned outflowish as well. I had very little confidence in the storm producing, so rather than staying out ahead of it I mad us at least sit to sample the core. If im not going to get a tornado, then I opt for cores.


Yea I was not impressed by that, but driving along the leading edge of the precip shaft was really neat. Like driving under a moving waterfall. We decided to stay ahead of the storm after that. The precip shaft was very well defined now behind a classic outflow feature called a whales mouth


I really like that picture. Anyways, the next storm in the bunch went tornado warned as well. It had a better presentation on radar visually, but I still wasnt to confident. For some reason I just get a feeling for when I feel the enviroment is going to produce, I get a feeling of excitement/nervousness...I just wasnt feeling it this time. The storms were all bark and no bite...but we had to stay on them...the weather likes to prove me wrong sometimes.

But it was more of the same the whole time. Whales mouth infront of a well defined precip shaft. Tornadic potential = almost zero. Although theyre still pretty to look at.

Trying difference camera settings here...shoulda tri-poded them




This one sort of confused us, it looks like there was a wall cloud back there on the 2nd tornado warned storm, but the big whales mouth along with the outflow winds were the dominant story. I knew better but at the same time, you just never know with the weather.


Awesome hail core on the 2nd storm


Well we decided to leave these storms and call it a chase, stopped for Sonics [yummy!] in Independance, KS and headed home. This will likely be the last chase of 2008, even though Im keeping an eye on the next trough lol. It felt great to be in the action of some tornadic storms again, though the tornadic potential was very brief. The intense CG action along with the brief overrun by the core made it a fun and worthwhile chase.

We met up with fellow chasers Dick Mcgowan, Darnin Brunin and others from their crew. Ive always had some respect for these guys and the shots they get in the field, it was awesome to meet and chat with them in person finally.

See everyone in 2009!

Stats:
Chase: 14
Miles: 1,460
Tornadoes: 0
Largest hail: pea .25"
Highest wind: est 40mph.
Chased with: Danny Neal and Matt Fischer

Google Map of chase: larger view can be seen by clicking the link below it:

View Larger Map

I have no will power

GAAAHHH!!!! Im obsessed I swear. I just cant pass up even the slightest opportunity. I know if something happens tomorrow ill toss myself infront of a CTA bus for not going. If nothing happens...oh well, I tried. I still have 29 days off work at my disposal for next year. This year I used about 10 for chasing, and it was an active year, so 29 should more than be enough.

Me, Matt and Danny are going to play the norhtern target, somewhere near the NE/IA border. Dynamics are good. Instability sucks. Storms are already firing though in NE kansas [elevated non-severe obviously] but if that can get going already, plus with the mid 50s dews I see in nebraska already...perhaps this could be one of those under-forecasted events. Ive seen it happen. Its a gamble. OFF WE GO! Good luck to everyone else heading out and playing the southern target.

Oh well.

Well the final vote for tomorrow is no. There is a threat, but given whats involved to get out there...its not a favorable gamble. Sucks, but oh well. These systems have minds of their own. This setup is very similar to what we had all spring it seems, such awesome dynamics but little instability to work with. All thanks to typical southeast ridging keeping the gulf choked off.

Thursdays potential seems to have gone down the crapper too. Instead of a nice beefy system we have a lost little closed/cut off low thats gonna bobble around before finally getting shoved outa here by a kicker wave. During this time it will loose upper level support and occlude itself to death and we will likely be dealt a sharp temperature decline that may produce a flurry or two. *PUKE*

The only saving grace is perhaps an isolated t-storm before the FROPA with maybe a few lightning strikes that I can be lucky enough to capture on camera...but...should anything worthwhile devlop, ill still be ready to bolt out the door thursday, tho I wont be using any time off so id be racing after it at night.

Saving grace #2...the pattern looks to become active..with system after system...hopefully one of them can produce something worthwhile...times running out so they say...but then I remind myself that on January 7th of this year, an EF-3 touched down near the IL/WI border. Anythings possible.

May wait till Thursday

This is the part I love/hate. To go or not to go.

Actually if it were a weekend id be all for it. One day I wont be bound by the 9-5 and I can chase when/wherever I want...but for now I must be picky.

Now that the potential event is closer I can take a look at more models takes. NAM, WRF and GFS are all very similar, with the GFS moving things a little more north and a less deeper low, but all paint a similar picture, this system will move very slow and it almost appears to cut off although i know this isnt the case. There will be a definite moisture return as far north into MN. Looking at surface plots theres a nice convergence zone between the OK/AR, KS/MO boarders all the way into Iowa, with nice backed flow on the eastern side. NAM wants to pull moisture allot further north than the GFS



Now the Shear along this entire area looks good...not much complaints directional wise, speed shear looks good too. Id like to target SWern IA, due to my local bias and better backed flow and convergence buuuuuut heres the problem


PHHHHHHHHHHHHHHT. No instability that way, as is the problem this time of year, looking at RH plots up at 500mb reveals cloud cover may be an issue for the northern target, but its possible with such strong kinematics in place that not much instability will be needed to get things going. Always a gamble.

So theres the ideal target around south central kansas, decent shear, good moisture, better instability...or the preferred northern target that has similar ingredients in place just without the CAPE. Well I could write forever and ever about what I see on models so Ill just move along.

Right now the IA target doesn't seem like it would justify taking a full day off work, nor the Kansas target taking 2 days off....but things can still change. As of right now I will hold off until Thursday.

With the system slowing down so much, and a big cold front progged to plow through against such strong surface heating ahead of it. A raging squall line appears possible. And there even looks like some moisture could advect into my hometown before hand.


Ugh. sorry for the smaller maps but I dont like how this blogger cuts off larger images. Anyways, so with this possible scenario coming into play, I may opt for a half day chase downstate, or perhaps west to intercept a possible squall line.

Im not just in it for tornadoes, I love all storms and sever weather, so it may be more worth it to make a 2hr drive for some good shelf structure and maybe some severe/hail and wind. At least I have two options, and its not do or die on Wednesday. I wish SPCs day2 would come out now so they could just tell me what to do haha. But that takes the fun out of it.

So thats where I stand, right now I think for me the Thursday chase is more probable, unless some things really come together for the IA target and confidence goes up regarding moisture and instability....and also pre-dark initiation.

Coming together

Ok so yesterday I did a quick 5 minute crap shoot post about the potential chase day next week. Today Ive had a bit more time to look at things.

Models are all over the place with this thing with each run thats for sure, making such a setup even harder to forecast. The area I mentioned yesterday isnt even close to where Id consider today...gotta love it...I probably wont make a final decision till Tuesday. Latest runs don't deepen the surface low as much and slow it down a bit. This may help the timing of whatever moisture we get a little better. All it will take this time of year is tds in the mid 50s, especially with really cold templs aloft. Pretty good surface heating may lead to some really steep lapse rates. I can see these storms being prolific hail makers too. I still like the backed flow over much of MO and into IA and even shifting into central IL by 12z thursday.

Right now I would set a target around south central IA based on the winds. Moisture is the big problem that far north. Storm speeds will be on the quick side, but it doesnt look like theyll be near impossible like they were on 10-18-07.

So Im still on the fence, id like to see the best target area shift east a bit, just because Im locally biased to a 1 day chase. If the best area ends being the central plains I will have to sit this one out, id rather hold my days off for a better setup in the spring, where moisture is more abundant and it wont be dark at 530pm. I can certainly pull off a 1 day chase to IA or god forbid...MO.

So for now I will keep my faces glued to the PC and further analyzing things with each run...and will post a more detailed target zone and forecast probably monday night.

I just had my laptop stipped down to factory settings, so I need to scramble to get everything back on there and working. Stay tuned.

Chase day next week??!?!

I mentioned it in the last blog, but things may be coming together for a pretty significant episode next week...

Depending on where it sets up, I may be heading out there, right now it looks like the middle MS valley could be under the gun, areas like the boot heal of MO into AR and TN...if perhaps we can get some of that moisture more north, central IL may see a threat as well. This is something Ill be keeping a close eye on....GFS wants to eject a 985mb low with some of the paramaters coming together...dont have much time to write so ill add more later!! Keeping a very close eye on this though...

me likey...



By adumbftw

Reverse psychology?

Ok so yesterday I mentioned I would throw in the towel on the chase season...but low and behold I check todays GFS and sure enough look what I see 10 days out staring back at me in the face.



HMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmm *raises eyebrow*

What a nice little trough we have here...digging into the plains...yesterday this was merely a ripple in the isotachs resembling more of shortwave than anything...now today its a full out trough.

And yes...I know its 10 days out and I know all about model sketchiness and unrealibility that far out...one thing I cant stand about ST is when someone tries to start a discussion about what they see on models that far out...one of the 1st responses is always "bla bla bla thats too far out why are u getting ur hopes up" I KNOW ITS FAR OUT...AND IM WISHCASTING...but to me I always like to see how these things end up verifying...and watching the evolution of these potential systems over the models...its never to early to raise the eyebrow and making sure your prepared...ok anyways...

Even on the surface chart, there is FINALLY hints at some moisture coming back, almost as far north as the quincy area, with some backed surface winds from NWern MO back into Ern AR


Although taking a look at the precip plot, it looks like the bulk of the precip will be on the northern fringe of the ssytem, suggesting maybe a snow event for the northern areas...and less isolated precip in the 'warm sector'...

i dont know if i buy into this yet...going back to the 1000mb chart there looks like a warm front advancing across central MO and maybe into SWern IL...direction shear looks good between 1000 and 850 but then becomes more unidirectional between 850 and 500 it seems. Perhaps the speed shear, which looks modest, could still be enough to promote some turning. Ill wait before I check for any signs of a cap...instability and helicity and whatnot.

Its far out...and things will surely change...I dont look into things much more in depth than that at 10 days out...or i WILL drive myself nutty wishcasting myself into a coma...eh maybe ill take a peek and see what EURO has to say...its an eyebrow raiser thats for sure. If I had to pick a target now, id say central MO [yuck] through eastern AR.

Weeeee.

SNOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooW!

Ew. Yuck. Sick. BLECH!!!

No, I didn't attempt to eat my first ever salad....Im talking about the sighting of snow flurries around here today. I knew it officially snowed here yesterday, but I didnt see it...so I was able to at least fool myself into thinking the year wasn't over yet. Today reality pimp smacked me in the face and I am finally tossing in the towel on the chase season. Fall was a major let down as far as chaseable setups go...but its never a real garauntee. We just cant get out of this damn west coast ridge-east coast trough pattern...it may break for a day or 2 but nothing ever comes of it...large highs over the east are keeping the gulf cut off to even the southern states.

But...in my last entry I mentioned a meager threat for thunder with a cutoff low progged to move over the region...well to my suprise as Im shopping for camping supplies Friday...an anvil crawler streaks across the sky followed my favorite sound in the entire world...temps were chilly, but height falls were enough to support tstorm development after-all. Some daytime "heating" also helped get the process going. It was definitely welcome.

Driving back from my camping trip to Indiana [which included us getting lost in the dead of night in a canyon for an hour] I decided to drive by the sight on I-57 where I filmed the tornado. It would be the 1st time I have been there since that day...and much to my suprise, there is still allot of debris scattered around...just goes to show how lazy I-dot is. Only a few moments later I found myself in a barage of mushy, pea and smaller size hailstorm that covered the road in only about 20 seconds. I wasnt convinced it was hail at first but after going over things and checking reports and conditions...i believe it really was. A nice little bonus.

So now that the year has drawn to an almost certain close...whats planned in the off season? More of the same...continue teaching myself more and more. I dont overload myself with more information than I can handle, which has helped me learn more than I ever plan. I hope to get a real chase website up and running as well, but that will be a much bigger project. As far as "upgrades" go...it will depend on how finances treat me...a windshield camera mount is on the top of my list. Perhaps a real camera from which to take better quality still images with, and begin educating myself on that aspect of the game.

Some quick stats on the season:

Chases: 13
Tornadoes: 4 [3 in Kansas, 1 in Illinois]
Largest hail-core: Half dollar size - 1.50"
Miles: Approx 11,400
States covered: IL, IN IA, NE, KS, AR, MS, TN

Of course a more detailed account is coming...but that will be later.

Since its now the off season, there wont be much forecasting going on over here, but Im sure I will have plenty to rant and talk about over the winter. Next year I plan on being very aggressive. I feel allot of opportunities were blown because we were pussy footing around the storms rather than diving in and just going for it. I know all there is to know about intercepting the various types of storms, so next year I will be getting my hands dirtier. Im still developing my chase "career" so its one step at a time.

On a serious note, Id like to ask you to send your thoughts and blessings out to fellow storm chaser Andrew Pritchard...his GF just went through the horrible tragedy of losing her sister to sensless violence by a piece of shit sorry sad excuse for a man. The news is horrible and I wish him, her and the family the best during this hard time. The chasing community is with you guys and you have our unending support.

Time to throw in the towel?

It would almost seem like it is time. With October rounding the half way mark and not even a sign on the models of anything worth-while. Usually the 1st half of fall provides at least 1 chaseable setup. This year that does not seem to be the case. November also can provide such a setup, although it would favor the southeastern parts of the country.

Looking at things now there is definitely nothing worth getting excited over. Last week 10 days out a cutoff low was starting to take shape. It looks like this verified as the feature has shown up consistently all week on not only the GFS but the EURO as well. Even the shorter range NAM picks up on the feature. Before that the temperatures will begin a graduall decline.



There it is shown above, this feature looks to move slowly and begin affecting my region on Wednesday...bringing miserable, cool and rainy conditions. The only hope for even a rumble of thunder would be if the system tracks a little more to the north, but I dont see that happening.

What I really dont like is what i see 10 days out.



Yuck. Although the GFS has a tendency to overdue cold surges that far out. I hope in this case it is true. The dominant pattern since summer though seems to have been west coast ridging and east coast troughing, so this seems all the more probable.

The last saving grace for the year could be a teeter totter like switch near the end of the month and into the beginning of november...if that doesnt verify then the towel will be thrown in, at least Ive managed to rack up more time off for next year. Which some think will be even more active than this year. Lets hope.

Pre-SDS is kicking in.

AAAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

The first signs of SDS. I spend an hour trying to follow the chaser drama blog trail. Im glad im neutral in all of that. Then again Ive never been one to care what someone else thinks or says about me. Im going to do what I want to do regardless, for every person who has something bad to say, theres 5 who have something good to say. Its a shame such a small community of enthusiasts is divided by its core fundamentals.

It all comes down to difference in style really. Some get close and in-your-face shots. Others dont. Allot of criticism comes to those whove had near death situations....but in the end...its their own call to put themselves in harms way. Who am I to tell people who are trained what not to do. They know the risks. I tend to be riskier than the average chaser. Not so much for fame, but I wont turn down any offer that came my way. Its everyones dream as a child to be well known for doing what they love, and to be successfull in doing so. If that makes me a bad person for fulfilling my dream then so be it.

Each year my network amongst chasers continues to grow, all for the positive, Ive gotten along with everyone Ive met. Someday that will change....and thats ok with me. Negativitey creates balance. Its impossible to please everyone.

As far as the weather goes...glancing at the 10 day GFS is a cause for attacking a bottle of whiskey. I dont like to look farther out than that because I always end up wishcasting. The ever persistant west coast ridge looks like its coming back. Putting us in the cool trough region. The transition wont feature any storms here though. The main surface low responsible for the big snows in Montana has drifted way into Canada leaving only a weak trailing cold front. The good juice has been stuck down south, as is common this time of year, and there isnt enoug instibility go get anything going.

The "second season" is having a togh time taking off, and right now I see nothing in the near future worth getting excited over. SDS is slowly setting in. Its going to be a long winter unless the season has one last breath of life.