Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Reverse psychology?

Ok so yesterday I mentioned I would throw in the towel on the chase season...but low and behold I check todays GFS and sure enough look what I see 10 days out staring back at me in the face.

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HMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmm *raises eyebrow*

What a nice little trough we have here...digging into the plains...yesterday this was merely a ripple in the isotachs resembling more of shortwave than anything...now today its a full out trough.

And yes...I know its 10 days out and I know all about model sketchiness and unrealibility that far out...one thing I cant stand about ST is when someone tries to start a discussion about what they see on models that far out...one of the 1st responses is always "bla bla bla thats too far out why are u getting ur hopes up" I KNOW ITS FAR OUT...AND IM WISHCASTING...but to me I always like to see how these things end up verifying...and watching the evolution of these potential systems over the models...its never to early to raise the eyebrow and making sure your prepared...ok anyways...

Even on the surface chart, there is FINALLY hints at some moisture coming back, almost as far north as the quincy area, with some backed surface winds from NWern MO back into Ern AR
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Although taking a look at the precip plot, it looks like the bulk of the precip will be on the northern fringe of the ssytem, suggesting maybe a snow event for the northern areas...and less isolated precip in the 'warm sector'...
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i dont know if i buy into this yet...going back to the 1000mb chart there looks like a warm front advancing across central MO and maybe into SWern IL...direction shear looks good between 1000 and 850 but then becomes more unidirectional between 850 and 500 it seems. Perhaps the speed shear, which looks modest, could still be enough to promote some turning. Ill wait before I check for any signs of a cap...instability and helicity and whatnot.

Its far out...and things will surely change...I dont look into things much more in depth than that at 10 days out...or i WILL drive myself nutty wishcasting myself into a coma...eh maybe ill take a peek and see what EURO has to say...its an eyebrow raiser thats for sure. If I had to pick a target now, id say central MO [yuck] through eastern AR.



beaudodson said...

It is FAR out. But, I noticed it last night as well. ;) Looks like at least a decent snowstorm and perhaps some severe!

Something to watch at least!

Dann Cianca said...

Hey Adam, reading your blog now (Danny Neal referred)