Monday, October 20, 2008

Time to throw in the towel?

It would almost seem like it is time. With October rounding the half way mark and not even a sign on the models of anything worth-while. Usually the 1st half of fall provides at least 1 chaseable setup. This year that does not seem to be the case. November also can provide such a setup, although it would favor the southeastern parts of the country.

Looking at things now there is definitely nothing worth getting excited over. Last week 10 days out a cutoff low was starting to take shape. It looks like this verified as the feature has shown up consistently all week on not only the GFS but the EURO as well. Even the shorter range NAM picks up on the feature. Before that the temperatures will begin a graduall decline.

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There it is shown above, this feature looks to move slowly and begin affecting my region on Wednesday...bringing miserable, cool and rainy conditions. The only hope for even a rumble of thunder would be if the system tracks a little more to the north, but I dont see that happening.

What I really dont like is what i see 10 days out.

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Yuck. Although the GFS has a tendency to overdue cold surges that far out. I hope in this case it is true. The dominant pattern since summer though seems to have been west coast ridging and east coast troughing, so this seems all the more probable.

The last saving grace for the year could be a teeter totter like switch near the end of the month and into the beginning of november...if that doesnt verify then the towel will be thrown in, at least Ive managed to rack up more time off for next year. Which some think will be even more active than this year. Lets hope.

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