Ok so yesterday I did a quick 5 minute crap shoot post about the potential chase day next week. Today Ive had a bit more time to look at things.
Models are all over the place with this thing with each run thats for sure, making such a setup even harder to forecast. The area I mentioned yesterday isnt even close to where Id consider today...gotta love it...I probably wont make a final decision till Tuesday. Latest runs don't deepen the surface low as much and slow it down a bit. This may help the timing of whatever moisture we get a little better. All it will take this time of year is tds in the mid 50s, especially with really cold templs aloft. Pretty good surface heating may lead to some really steep lapse rates. I can see these storms being prolific hail makers too. I still like the backed flow over much of MO and into IA and even shifting into central IL by 12z thursday.
Right now I would set a target around south central IA based on the winds. Moisture is the big problem that far north. Storm speeds will be on the quick side, but it doesnt look like theyll be near impossible like they were on 10-18-07.
So Im still on the fence, id like to see the best target area shift east a bit, just because Im locally biased to a 1 day chase. If the best area ends being the central plains I will have to sit this one out, id rather hold my days off for a better setup in the spring, where moisture is more abundant and it wont be dark at 530pm. I can certainly pull off a 1 day chase to IA or god forbid...MO.
So for now I will keep my faces glued to the PC and further analyzing things with each run...and will post a more detailed target zone and forecast probably monday night.
I just had my laptop stipped down to factory settings, so I need to scramble to get everything back on there and working. Stay tuned.