This is the part I love/hate. To go or not to go.
Actually if it were a weekend id be all for it. One day I wont be bound by the 9-5 and I can chase when/wherever I want...but for now I must be picky.
Now that the potential event is closer I can take a look at more models takes. NAM, WRF and GFS are all very similar, with the GFS moving things a little more north and a less deeper low, but all paint a similar picture, this system will move very slow and it almost appears to cut off although i know this isnt the case. There will be a definite moisture return as far north into MN. Looking at surface plots theres a nice convergence zone between the OK/AR, KS/MO boarders all the way into Iowa, with nice backed flow on the eastern side. NAM wants to pull moisture allot further north than the GFS
Now the Shear along this entire area looks good...not much complaints directional wise, speed shear looks good too. Id like to target SWern IA, due to my local bias and better backed flow and convergence buuuuuut heres the problem
PHHHHHHHHHHHHHHT. No instability that way, as is the problem this time of year, looking at RH plots up at 500mb reveals cloud cover may be an issue for the northern target, but its possible with such strong kinematics in place that not much instability will be needed to get things going. Always a gamble.
So theres the ideal target around south central kansas, decent shear, good moisture, better instability...or the preferred northern target that has similar ingredients in place just without the CAPE. Well I could write forever and ever about what I see on models so Ill just move along.
Right now the IA target doesn't seem like it would justify taking a full day off work, nor the Kansas target taking 2 days off....but things can still change. As of right now I will hold off until Thursday.
With the system slowing down so much, and a big cold front progged to plow through against such strong surface heating ahead of it. A raging squall line appears possible. And there even looks like some moisture could advect into my hometown before hand.
Ugh. sorry for the smaller maps but I dont like how this blogger cuts off larger images. Anyways, so with this possible scenario coming into play, I may opt for a half day chase downstate, or perhaps west to intercept a possible squall line.
Im not just in it for tornadoes, I love all storms and sever weather, so it may be more worth it to make a 2hr drive for some good shelf structure and maybe some severe/hail and wind. At least I have two options, and its not do or die on Wednesday. I wish SPCs day2 would come out now so they could just tell me what to do haha. But that takes the fun out of it.
So thats where I stand, right now I think for me the Thursday chase is more probable, unless some things really come together for the IA target and confidence goes up regarding moisture and instability....and also pre-dark initiation.