Its kind of ironic that as this amazing year weather wise comes to a close there is a possibility of a semi local chase tomorrow. We already had one rare off season event here last month so why not another?
Of course I'm not a complete idiot and I realize its about as big of a crapshoot as there can be, but its been fun to watch how the system has evolved. Currently it is 48/43 which is pretty mild and moist for this time of the year, some locations south of here are reporting temps in the low 50s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s. For 9pm on December 30th thats pretty impressive. I remember the night prior to last months event I was sitting online noticing how exceptionally warm and moist it was. Of course it was November and we were dealing with low 60s temps and mid 50s dewpoints...but I digress...
These needle in haystack, off season rare events are beginning to fascinate me and I tried to do a comparison to past events which you can read here: http://convectiveaddiction.com/forecasts-2/new-years-eve-2010-a-midwestern-severe-event-in-the-making/
One of these days I will unlock the mysteries of these sleeper IL days and use them to my chasing advantage. As I mentioned I find them fascinating to study. They are much more challenging and really stimulate that nerdy side of chasing. I mean, any idiot can spot a classic plains setup on the forecast models and understand where tornadoes will be possible...these wacky off season events provide a greater challenge though.
Best case scenario, I chase and bag a rare tube to myself. Worst case scenario, I go party as planned and maybe get treated to a few [also rare] December lightning flashes. Either way, BRING IT ON!
See yall in 2011!
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2 comments:
Adam, I read your analysis of winter tornadic setups in the Midwest on Convective Addiction, but I didn't find a place there to comment, so I thought I'd drop you a note here. I want to congratulate you on an EXCELLENT, not to mention timely, article. Spot on, too. Missouri and Illinois really got whacked yesterday in what will likely be known as the 2010 New Years Eve Outbreak. Great job, amigo!
Thanks Bob! I am working on a followup no I hope to post tomorrow.
You can also thank wordpress for omitting the comment section because in order for me to posts those large charts I had to post it as a "page" instead of a "post" and pages for some reason don't allow comments.
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