First off people,
I know long range models arent reliable!! Regardless, I still like to look at them and call out what i see to watch how the patterns evolve, it helps me learn and understand current patterns and why a model may be showing what its showing...no need to point out to me every single time that what Im observing and mentioning probably wont happen...trust me...i know!
Now, onto what matters. I like the setup Im seeing for Tuesday. This is looking like a more classic setup, better than anything Ive seen all year IMO. For once we will have a broad target zone. Im sick of these localized 4 county moderate risk setups. It would be fine if the forecast was kept to yourselves but in this day and age every leeching jackass can flock to that area right now...makes me wonder why i even bother trying to forecast on my own. Why work so hard when you dont have to?
Dammit I went off on a tangent again. Back to the weather!!!!! I think this could be a good classic setup if it pans out.
What I like here is we finally have a deep surface low with the GFS bringing it down to perhaps lower than 995mb. That will finally up the forcing and aid in stronger convergence wherever boundaries may setup. There is an obvious dryline extending down from southwestern NE though TX. However right now the cap looks to be really stout with 700s above 15C...that is a thermal nuclear cap for sure. Given the storng forcing from said surface low though, it might be breachable.
However that would be a southern dryline play. There also looks to be somce nice triple point play as well which is the area im considering. Surface winds begin to back around the low and the 500s come in from the WSW and are a bit stronger as well. The cap is a bit weaker here perhaps around 12C. Another thing going for this area is the t/td spread isnt as great. The area along the DL could see surface temps in the 90s with dewpoints perhaps in the mid 60s leading to higher based storms.
The area near the tp wont have this issue as much with lower surface temps and a similar moisture profile, of course finding that tounge of deeper moisture will help. Just took a quick glance at some soundings and the hodos are very large and curve the way they should!
All in all I think this setup holds some real potential!! I tossed up my preliminary target map based on what Ive mentioned above. Hopefully once the NAM comes into range it will line up well. Models have sucked horribly this year and I hate to see this go to waste. This is largely based off the 5/8 0Z GFS run on twisterdata.com
The GFS has been consistent for a few days with this setup. *keeping fingers crossed*
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