Wednesday, December 24, 2008

After xmas chase update

Given all the factors I probably wont chase this one. There will be some severe weather, but the type and location, dont really justify the means. Plus I dont see much of a threat re-developing during the day, I think the main threat will be carried over from Friday. My original forecast was pretty close to where SPC highlighted in the day 4-8 outlook. So ill always take a forecast win. Ive come to learn that forecasting events you dont chase also helps the learning process:
Image Hosted by ImageShack.usImage Hosted by ImageShack.us

Although in the future I should probably NOT use the oval feature in paint to highlight my target areas...lesson learned. Using a freehand tool would be better.

GFS and EURO bounced this one around for a few days. With the latest runs pulling it even more NW and slowing it down a bit. The one thing about this system that has remained consistent though is the insane amount of moisture it will have available.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Thats very impressive. Especially for this time of year. I wont post surface charts or forecast dewpoints but dewpoints [tds] to near 60 will stream up all the way to Chicago. It will be interesting to see if that actually happens. With the snowpack in place and this kind of juice, Im thinking it will be quite foggy around here [this is the 1st time Im forecasting fog as well.]

Looking at the precip plot you can also see the low way up there in Ontario...compare that with the image I posted in the previous blog for 0Z Sunday and youll see just how much the path has changed.

Going back to the precip...ahead of the cold front we will see a ton of rain up here which raises concerns for flooding. Ice jams have been reported on the KK river already, and we sit downstream from an impressive snowpack in wisconsin as well as our own. Temps approaching near 50 will just add to the rapid melt. So its going to get messy thats for sure. Chicago could even see a thunderstorm embedded in this.

Since I will be in KY, I will likely just wait/hope for a squall line to come to me...at the very least Ill get some thunder and lightning. However if things change and suddenly tornado fest becomes possible..my plans will change. After this system it looks line zonal flow will return as the pattern does a teeter totter flip. The zonal flow will keep temps seasonal. Once the west coast ridge develops though the dreaded NW flow will return and we may get cold again...but remain dry for the most part. Maybe a little Alberta clipper type system around new years but nothing big. I hope mother nature makes one of these huge west coast troughs in the spring...these past 2 weeks have been exciting weather wise.

Active pattern ends...BOOOOOoooo. Well see what happens. MERRY XMAS EVERYONE!

1 comment:

Michael W. Moss said...

Watching this one VERY carefully. Could be a regional tornado outbreak with this one. Stay Tuned for my updates! Merry Christmas man!