Sunday, December 21, 2008

After xmas chase?

So far winter 08-09 has been a pretty wild ride. Weve been pummeled by several winter storms the past few days, and now as I type this the current temperatures are about -2 with windchills in the -30s. Yuck.

Watching the models the past couple days is making me nervous/frustrated. It looks like another powerfull winter storm will slam us on Tuesday, bringing another round of significant precip. More importantly though is the system that the GFS has been somewhat persistent in developing the weekend after xmas.
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By adumbftw

Just one of many shots Ive been pouring over. Todays run isn't as aggressive as yesterdays...but it still hints at a possible and quite rare December chase for the OH valley and perhaps anywhere as far north as central IN and IL. Since it is on a weekend this would be an end of the year blessing, but alas...xmas plans have me traveling down to KY to be with family. They think Im selfish because I spend more time chasing storms than I do making efforts to visit...but none of them have obviously pursued a dream before.

Maybe I am selfish because if this verifies, I will chase....but for once Im hoping it doesnt just to spare my life the personal drama. GFS hasnt been the best performer this winter...but it has been persistent with this system bringing moisture and warming temps all the way up to near the IN/MI border. Shear profiles are pretty unidirectional at this point but there is some turning in the lower levels. The low right now would deepen to 994mb as it races NE over lower MI. Yesterdays run had it dropping down to 984mb before occluding whereas todays run has a more gradual deepening but it doesnt occlude until well off the coast.

Of course with the snowpack in place I could see it being quite foggy IF that kind of moisture were to stream that far north....and then theres the daylight concerns and so much more...this would probably one of those low instability strong dynamic setups...not the most favorable...but a setup none-the-less. The model does put the precip bullseye over us too...and this system wont be lacking moisture.

So if, right now, i had to pick a chase area, it would be the following. The area in green being possible, with the area in red being more favorable and where id likely set my target area based on weather, terrain, road network etc etc. I know this will likely change, and that right now I should take this with a grain of salt, but to me its fun to watch the progression of these systems.
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By adumbftw

Or...maybe traveling to KY will get me a little xmas bonus in the form of a squall line? Well see. I love my family and want to visit, but chasing is and always will be my #1 priority. The presents aren't going anywhere...but I have to treat every system like the last one for awhile...Unless your a chaser or weather fanatic, you wont understand that mentallity.

Just like last year, mother nature isnt giving me much of an off season....so for now I will be watching this like a hawk...and bracing for the next winter storm which should hammer us on tuesday.

I hope everyone has an enjoyable holiday season.

2 comments:

Paul said...

Thanks for the compliment and for this write up. I got a Larry Cosgrove forecast forwarded to me that pretty much said the same thing about severe potential. Even if just a squall line, I think you'll be in a pretty good place for one last go before the new year.

Michael W. Moss said...

I'll probably do a video update overnight today on this storm system. Still quite a bit of consistantly on bringing a severe weather look. Keep yas posted!