Sunday, February 1, 2009

First chase of 2009 season?!

Probably not...but like many other chasers I have been wishcasting a potential setup that the GFS has been showing the past several days.

Here is a clip from my bulletin cast I posted on Friday Jan 30th:

"tho right now the gulf looks cutoff and the best moisture wont make it out of texas as a high sits over the east once the monday-tuesday storm departs...but the QPF values are imprssive regardless so well see how this one pans out."

That of course is once this potential system reaches here next Tuesday, before that though there are some hopes that it could provide a chaseable setup in the plains. Originally looked to be on a Saturday but the most recent runs have slowed it down. If it were a Saturday I would jump on it, but if its a Sunday or Monday it will take quite a setup to lure me down there this early...such as Feb 5th 2008. I plan to reflect on that chase this Thursday...1 year from the event.

Its nice to have something to keep an eye on though. An active pattern may return once this week is over with. The east coast is gonna get pummeled by a pretty impressive system to start things out. Bombogenisis may actually occur with this one. The bad news is just what I said it was on Friday, this will cut off the gulf and keep the best moisture from streaming north. Typically these early season setups are super mega shear with no instabilty and meager well see.

Locally it could bring us some warm temps, a thaw, and maybe a December 27th 2008 type setup with some local thunderstorms embedded in rain.

Impressive QPF values though
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With decent warming perhaps into the 50s, dewpoints in the upper 40s maybe...probably going to be foggy.
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Start of an active pattern? GFS wants to bring in another trough right behind it...return of SW flow?
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So thats whats goin on with me weather wise. This past weekend I had an adventure to MI with my friends, to make a long story short my truck slid down a snowy hill into a tree and I now have a busted taillight...the irony in that is the fact I bought taillight guards [picture in a blog a few below this one] for stuff like that. I havent installed them because of the constant cold and snow around here and me not having a garage. Talk about irony being a bitch and a half...

Getting my laptop back tomorrow, have to get that reloaded with everything chase related. Ordered parts for my desktop so I will have to get that up to speed again as well. Still have to install everything on the truck along with ordering a new taillight now. So much to do and the clock is ticking...February will be a hectic month.

Almost time my friends!

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